In the middle of the summer grill rush, wholesale Choice boxed-beef is hovering above $340 per hundredweight, the highest midsummer mark on record, and futures suggest the climb isn’t over. A shrunken U.S. cattle herd, stubborn feed costs, and a quota-capped flow of Brazilian imports (now facing a 26 percent duty) have tightened supplies just as diners return to steaks and burgers. For operators juggling menus and margins, understanding why beef prices are spiking—and how long the squeeze will last—is now as critical as perfecting the cook on a rib-eye.
U.S. cattle numbers are at 60-year lows
The national herd stands at roughly 87 million head—down 2% year over year and the smallest since 1962. Years of drought have cut available pasture and pushed ranchers to sell breeding animals early, so rebuilding the herd will take at least another year and a half. With fewer cattle in the pipeline, beef production is tight, and prices are higher on every cut. Fewer cattle translate into tighter beef production and higher prices at every point on the carcass.
Feed costs remain historically high
Corn has retreated from the 2022 peak but is still trading 20–25% above pre-pandemic averages. Because feed is still expensive, feedlot operators are reluctant to buy additional calves and yearlings (“placements”) beyond what they need to keep their pens full right now. Holding back on new placements means fewer cattle will reach market weight six to eight months down the road, tightening finished-cattle supplies and keeping beef prices elevated in the near term.
Limited relief from Brazilian imports
Need cheap South American beef to bail you out? Dream on. Brazil emptied its 65K-ton duty-free quota by Easter. Anything they ship for the rest of 2025 pays a 26% tariff and gets babysat at the border thanks to BSE re-inspection rules. Bottom line: those containers aren’t coming to rescue your food cost unless you like long waits and a fat surcharge.
Other global factors to watch
Australia’s exports are increasing after herd rebuilding, but freight costs and prior Asian commitments leave modest tonnage for the U.S. Argentina is easing some export controls, yet currency volatility limits consistent supply. China’s slower-than-expected rebound could divert beef to North America in early 2025, but that is still speculative. Ocean freight rates are roughly 40% higher than January because of Red Sea diversions, adding 10–15 ¢/lb to landed cost.
Since June, Choice boxed-beef has been holding between $315 and $325 per hundredweight—roughly 15 to 18 percent higher than the same time last year—and the futures market says the climb isn’t over. December live-cattle contracts are hovering around $1.90 per pound, a level that signals another 5 to 7 percent jump in wholesale prices before the year wraps up. USDA, Rabobank, CME, and nearly every other major analyst agree: supplies will stay tight and prices will remain firm well into 2025.
SO, what can we do?
Well, lock in prices on your core cuts now if your volume justifies it—even a slight premium today can spare you a holiday-season scramble when strip loins are scarce. At the same time, broaden your specs by working in value cuts like chuck flap, ball tip, and sirloin cap; handled properly, they eat like premium steak for 20–30 percent less. On the grind side, blend inexpensive domestic 50-trim with imported 90-lean to keep burger costs in check even with fat trim north of $1.20 a pound. Build a safety cushion of two to three days’ inventory, because reduced Saturday kills make deliveries less predictable, and keep an eye on exchange rates and freight— a strong dollar and falling ocean rates can shave pennies off imported product, but if the dollar weakens you’ll want those costs hedged.
Expect beef to stay expensive through the rest of 2025. Tight domestic supply, capped Brazilian imports, and elevated logistics costs leave little room for relief this year. Careful contracting, flexible cut choices, and disciplined inventory management are the best tools available to protect food cost until the cattle cycle turns.