Predicting the Unpredictable: How to Plan for Q4 of 2025

Now that we’re well into October and the holidays are barreling toward us, what can we expect from diners and the industry at large over the next three months of chaos? With the firehose of news hitting our socials, our TV stations, and every other channel, it’s understandable if you want to turn the TV off and look away.

Your business is not immune to the headlines, some things clearly affect it, but not every headline is actionable or even worth worrying about. If you’re struggling to figure out which is which, we’re here to help. Below is our attempt to predict the downright unpredictable: how to plan for Q4 2025 to make the best of it.

The Bottom line (what most operators should plan for)

• Demand: When you hear lines like “Nominal restaurant sales are still growing, but most of the growth is price-driven,” remember that dollars are up mostly because checks are bigger, not because more guests are walking in. Traffic is flat to slightly down versus last year, with pockets of strength around experiences, groups, and holidays. Expect a slow‑but‑steady Q4 rather than a surge. (restaurant.org)
• Travel: Holiday travel should be robust again for both road travel and air. Cheaper gas this fall is a tailwind for dining out and road‑trip traffic. (tsa.gov)
• Costs: Beef, coffee, and chocolate remain high and most are not expecting the prices to peak until 2026 rather than anytime soon. Egg prices are still volatile but easing from earlier peaks.
• Labor/immigration: *takes deep breath* The recent Supreme Court decision to allow ethnicity to be a factor for reasonable suspicion shows no sign of slowing the current situation. All we can say is… protect employee dignity, prepare backup staffing, and use standard, respectful I‑9 practices. If you’re looking for help or advice here, email support and we can connect you to resources. 

Are people eating out normally?

• Sales vs. traffic: Inflation and price increases are still lifting nominal sales. Real, inflation‑adjusted spending and traffic are more muted. Q2 2025 spending at “eating and drinking places” hit an all‑time high nominally, but much of the gain is price‑driven; traffic has been near flat to slightly negative most months. (restaurant.org)
• The Census shows that August 2025 food services and drinking places sales are up about 6.5% year over year (nominal – not adjusted for inflation). Black Box Intelligence shows 2025 comps improving into early summer, but same‑store traffic is hovering around zero to slightly negative by the middle of the year. (sgbonline.com)
• Consumer confidence has slipped into fall, which argues for value‑focused offers to protect traffic. OpenTable reports strong interest in experiential dining and larger parties. Midweek dining is up, and many diners say they plan to dine out more. Consider leaning into holiday experiences and group packages if you can. (opentable.com)

Holiday travel and out‑of‑home activity

• Airports are busy and comparable to record levels; TSA throughput remains high heading into fall. Lower gas prices (national average around $3.11 as of October 9) support road trips and suburban traffic. So you may see a dip from your regulars, but that could be offset by folks from the outskirts of town.
• U.S. Travel’s fall forecast: domestic business/group travel is growing modestly; inbound international is softer this year (less lift from foreign tourists in some markets). I can’t imagine why… (ustravel.org)
• Hotels: Late‑September hotel RevPAR ran a bit soft year over year (calendar effects, plus some September malaise), but October is typically better for groups and meetings; watch local calendars. (hospitalitynet.org)

Signals point to another heavy travel season (especially by car), though retail holiday discounts may be a bit weaker due to tariff and cost uncertainty. For restaurants, that means good suburban/road‑corridor and airport‑adjacent demand, and steady urban demand tied to events and parties.

Any relief on prices this fall?

• Menu inflation backdrop: USDA’s Food Price Outlook has 2025 food‑away‑from‑home up 3.9% y/y; food‑at‑home 2.4%. That gap still favors cooking at home, so customers remain price‑sensitive to checks. (ers.usda.gov)
• Beef: Cattle inventories are at multi‑decade lows, and USDA projects tight supplies and high retail beef prices to persist. Plan menus accordingly (use smaller portions, blended proteins, highlight poultry/pork/seafood alternatives – which we’ve been talking about a lot lately)
• Chocolate/cocoa: Wholesale futures have fallen from record highs, but retail chocolate prices are still elevated into Halloween/holiday. Expect little relief for cocoa-rich desserts through year‑end. (ft.com)
• Coffee: Prices are elevated across the U.S. and, given tight supplies and new import tariffs, are likely to stay flat or higher into late 2025 and beyond. (ico.org)
• Eggs and dairy: Egg prices spiked earlier in 2025 but have eased from peaks; volatility can recur with avian flu. FDA/USDA continue to emphasize that pasteurization keeps the commercial milk supply safe from H5N1.
• Fuel: EIA and AAA see pump prices trending down into Q4. Helpful for deliveries, travel and consumer wallets! (eia.gov)

What to do right now

• Lock in Q4 group business: Push experiential holiday menus and prix‑fixe/group packages. Maybe try promoting mid‑week parties to fill the new “Wednesday is the new Friday” pattern.
• Calibrate value: Protect traffic with targeted bundles and value nights. Watch check growth! Industry traffic has been choppy when price gaps widen. (barrons.com). Don’t forget the NRA’s survey found that price hikes above 15% led to enough decreased orders to offset the added value completely. Ride that margin as best you can.
• Menu engineering: Shift exposure away from high‑cost beef and cocoa‑heavy desserts; feature poultry/seafood, alternative cuts, and lower‑cocoa sweets. Hedge key beverages (coffee) where feasible.
• Staffing and compliance: Maintain I‑9 accuracy, prepare managers for calm, rights‑aware interactions with government inspectors, and ensure backup coverage on schedules. (modernrestaurantmanagement.com)
• Watch your local demand drivers: Hotels/business travel look steadier in October; monitor city calendars and convention schedules to time promos. 

A valuable lesson that can be learned over and over is that small moves compound. Do one thing per day to weather-proof your business and in 90 days – your business will thank you. Keep guests feeling cared for, keep teams supported, and you’ll exit Q4 stronger than you entered it. You’ve got this.