Restaurants have always benefited from a simple reality: many guests weren’t just paying for dinner.
They were ordering another cocktail, appetizers for the table, dessert, a second round…
And in many cases, those higher-margin extras mattered just as much as the entrée itself.
Now, some of the largest alcohol companies in the world are reporting meaningful slowdowns — at the exact same time GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy are exploding in popularity.
Recently reported:
- a 9.4% decline in Diageo’s North American organic sales
- U.S. spirits sales fell 15.4%
- Diageo’s U.S. tequila sales fell 23% in the first half of fiscal 2026.
- Don Julio sales were down 20.9%.
- Casamigos sales dropped 30.9%.
Brown-Forman — maker of Jack Daniel’s — recently warned of weaker demand for premium spirits.
Longtime growth engines like tequila have started cooling after years of explosive expansion.
At the same time, Gallup found the percentage of Americans who say they drink alcohol fell from 62% to 54% in just two years.
Younger consumers appear to be leading the shift: 65% of Gen Z respondents in one recent survey said they planned to drink less in 2025.
Ozempic, Wegovy, and the Future of Restaurant Spending
At the same time, GLP-1 medications are rapidly becoming one of the largest behavioral-health shifts in modern America. Novo Nordisk — maker of Ozempic and Wegovy — became one of the most valuable companies in Europe as demand for GLP-1 drugs exploded.
Morgan Stanley recently projected that as many as 24 million Americans could be using GLP-1 drugs by 2035 and estimates suggest roughly 1 in 8 American adults have already tried a GLP-1 medication.
And J.P. Morgan analysts previously estimated the drugs could reduce overall calorie consumption across the U.S. population enough to meaningfully affect:
- food companies,
- alcohol brands,
- grocery spending,
- airlines,
- and restaurant traffic patterns.
That may sound dramatic.
But Wall Street is already treating GLP-1 adoption as a major economic trend — not just a pharmaceutical story. Walmart executives recently stated they could already see changing food-purchasing behavior among GLP-1 users in their shopping data.
It’s Probably Not Just GLP-1s
Some important context: GLP-1 drugs are probably not the sole reason Americans are drinking less or changing their dining habits.
Alcohol sales have also been pressured by:
- rising menu prices,
- younger consumers drinking less overall,
- wellness-focused lifestyles,
- cannabis legalization,
- and a growing “sober curious” culture.
This shift was likely already happening.
But GLP-1 adoption may be accelerating it.
Part of the reason may be biological.
GLP-1 drugs don’t just reduce appetite. Researchers believe they may also affect the brain’s reward system — including cravings tied to alcohol and other compulsive behaviors.
Some early studies have shown participants reducing alcohol consumption by as much as 40–60% while using GLP-1 medications.
And increasingly, users themselves report:
- drinking less,
- losing interest in alcohol,
- feeling full faster,
- or simply not craving a second drink the way they once did.
Researchers are now actively studying whether GLP-1 medications could eventually play a role in treating alcohol addiction itself.
But right now, GLP-1 adoption rate is so high that major companies are beginning to treat these behavioral changes as real economic signals — not just temporary internet trends.
One of the strangest examples came from the airline industry.
Several major airlines have reportedly begun modeling potential fuel savings tied to lower average passenger weights associated with widespread GLP-1 adoption.
Why?
Because even modest reductions in aircraft weight can create enormous fuel savings at scale.
In fact, some analysts have estimated that lower average passenger weights tied to GLP-1 adoption could eventually save the airline industry hundreds of millions of dollars annually in fuel costs — with some projections reaching more than $500 million per year across major carriers.
That doesn’t mean Ozempic suddenly changed the economy overnight.
But it does suggest something important: large corporations are beginning to seriously model around the possibility that Americans may permanently eat, drink, and consume differently than they did even five years ago.
And for restaurants — where alcohol, appetizers, desserts, and add-on spending often drive the healthiest margins — even small behavioral changes can quietly reshape profitability over time.
The Era of “Smaller Tickets”?
For many operators, the concern may not be fewer guests.
It may be smaller checks.
Restaurants have always relied heavily on the high-margin extras:
- one more cocktail,
- a shared appetizer,
- dessert,
- premium pours,
- another round before the check.
But what happens if more guests:
- eat less,
- drink less,
- skip dessert,
- split entrées,
- order one mocktail instead of three cocktails,
- and head home earlier?
Traffic can remain relatively stable while profitability quietly shrinks underneath it.
That’s especially important because restaurants typically make their strongest margins on:
- alcohol,
- appetizers,
- desserts,
- and impulse purchases.
Not necessarily on the entrée itself.
Americans Really Are Drinking Less
The slowdown in alcohol consumption isn’t isolated to one brand or one category.
Recent industry data has shown declines across beer, wine, and spirits.
Wine has been hit particularly hard, while premium spirits have also softened after years of growth driven by “premiumization” — the trend of consumers spending more on higher-end alcohol.
Meanwhile, Gallup polling has shown fewer Americans reporting regular alcohol consumption overall, with younger generations leading much of the shift.
And increasingly, younger consumers appear more interested in:
- wellness/fitness,
- travel,
- live shows and festivals,
- cannabis/THC beverages,
- and social experiences that don’t necessarily revolve around heavy drinking.
Industry observers have increasingly noted that Gen Z appears to prioritize “experience-first” socializing rather than traditional nightlife culture centered around alcohol.
Even restaurateur David Chang recently warned that declining alcohol consumption among younger guests may become “the real existential threat” facing restaurants because of how heavily many businesses rely on beverage margins.
That doesn’t mean bars or restaurants are going away.
But it does suggest younger consumers may increasingly spend money differently than previous generations did.
Some Winners Are Emerging Too
Not every category is losing.
Ready-to-drink cocktails, non-alcoholic beverages, mocktails, and functional drinks continue to grow rapidly.
Brands now have a lot to offer:
- NA beer,
- alcohol-free spirits,
- wellness beverages,
- THC drinks,
- and premium mocktail experiences
have all seen increased interest from consumers looking for alternatives to traditional drinking occasions.
For restaurants, that presents an opportunity.
If guests are consuming less overall, then every item they do buy matters more than ever.
That means operators who can create reasons for people to leave the house may still thrive even as consumption habits evolve.
That could mean:
- strong mocktail and NA beverage programs,
- trivia nights,
- tasting events,
- themed dinner experiences,
- live music,
- patio events,
- chef collaborations,
- shareable group-style menus,
- loyalty perks,
- late-night dessert specials,
- or social spaces that feel genuinely worth gathering in.
Because if guests are ordering fewer drinks overall, the experience itself may need to carry more of the value.
The restaurants that win may not simply be the ones serving the most food or alcohol — but the ones creating the strongest reason to come together in the first place.
Restaurants Have Adapted Before
Restaurants have survived — and adapted to — enormous consumer shifts before:
- smoking bans,
- delivery apps,
- inflation,
- labor shortages,
- changing diets,
- low-carb waves,
- vegan trends,
- craft beer booms,
- and countless economic cycles.
Good operators adjust faster than the market.
And whether GLP-1 drugs become a permanent cultural shift or simply accelerate trends already underway, the message for restaurants may ultimately be the same:
Guests are becoming more selective.
More intentional.
And more careful about what earns their money.
That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll stop going out.
But it may mean restaurants have to work harder to make every dollar spent feel worth it.
Try This — This Week
Pick ONE night this week and intentionally build an experience around guests staying longer without relying on alcohol sales.
That could mean:
- a trivia night,
- an NA cocktail feature,
- a dessert pairing special,
- a patio event,
- live music,
- a chef tasting,
- happy-hour mocktail flights,
- or a shareable group special designed for social tables.
Then compare:
- average ticket size,
- table time,
- dessert attachment,
- and guest engagement against a normal night.
Because if guests are gradually drinking less overall, restaurants may need more reasons to gather than simply “going out for drinks.”
The operators who adapt early may have a major advantage over the next few years.