For many Americans, the stakes of this election feel almost impossibly high. Questions about the future of our democracy, the economy, and the direction of the country have made this an unusually unsettling election season. And while people may disagree about what they’re afraid of, there’s plenty of uncertainty to go around.
But with so much attention focused on what might change after November 3, we thought it might be useful to look at what won’t.
The reality is that some of the biggest challenges facing restaurants aren’t going to disappear with the election results. Years of rising operating costs won’t suddenly reverse. Customers will still be watching their spending. Finding and keeping great employees will still take work.
But there’s good news in that familiarity, too.
People will still want to go out to eat. Restaurants will continue finding new ways to work smarter and more efficiently. And the things that make a restaurant worth visiting – great food, thoughtful hospitality, and a genuine connection to its community – are finding their way back into our collective consciousness.
So rather than make predictions about what happens next, we took a look at six realities that aren’t likely to change significantly on November 4, or even next year.
Some are problems. Some are opportunities. And maybe there’s a little comfort in knowing which is which.
The challenges we already know
The cost of doing business isn’t going to reset.
While there have been occasional bright spots, the financial pressure remains substantial. Even when inflation slows, prices don’t necessarily come back down. It only means they’re rising more slowly. Even if inflation returns to a comfortable level, years of accumulated price increases don’t simply disappear.
There is some encouraging news. According to the National Restaurant Association, wholesale food prices in September were actually 2.6% lower than a year earlier. That’s genuine relief, even if prices remain 34% higher than they were before the pandemic. And while the savings vary considerably depending on what’s on your menu, it’s a welcome sign that some of the pressure may be easing.
But there’s an even better way to look at it. The challenges facing restaurants are largely ones operators already understand. You’ve made difficult pricing decisions, reconsidered expenses, and found ways to operate under conditions that once seemed extraordinary.
If some of those adjustments were intended to be temporary, now might be a good time to find more permanent solutions. But much of the difficult work is already behind you, and the strategies you’ve developed won’t suddenly become irrelevant because the political landscape changes.
Costs may never return to where they were, but there are encouraging signs that some of the worst increases are behind us. And unlike a few years ago, you’re not trying to figure out how to operate at these prices anymore. You’ve already learned how to do it.
Your customers have been adapting, too.
And while you’ve been navigating your business’s expenses, your customers have been doing much the same.
In the National Restaurant Association’s September consumer survey, 40% of consumers reported using more discounts and value promotions than usual. Half said covering their expenses had become more difficult over the past year.
Those numbers don’t mean customers have stopped wanting to dine out. They’re simply having to think harder about when and where they spend their money.
A more favorable economy could eventually bring some relief. But affordability, perceived value, and the experience customers receive in return for their money will remain important considerations long after the ballots are counted.
The reassuring part? You’ve already been learning how to serve those customers. Their priorities aren’t a mystery, and whatever happens in November, the work you’ve done to earn their business still matters.
And then there’s the human side of running a restaurant.
Finding good people, helping them grow, and giving them reasons to stay has never been as simple as posting a job opening. Labor market conditions may change, and government policy can affect the availability and cost of workers. But building a dependable team will continue to take patience, investment, and good leadership.
There’s something reassuring about that, too. The relationships you’ve built with your employees, the experience you’ve gained, and the workplace you’ve worked hard to improve will still have value. Those investments don’t reset with the election results.
The reasons to feel hopeful
With so much at stake in this election, it’s easy to focus on what we stand to gain or lose. But amid the uncertainty, the restaurant industry is showing itself to be remarkably durable.
People still love restaurants.
Here’s a number worth celebrating: in September, U.S. restaurant sales increased for the eighth consecutive month, rising 7% over the previous year, according to the National Restaurant Association.
But the more interesting number is 3.4%. That’s how much sales grew after adjusting for inflation – the strongest annual increase in nearly four years.
For much of the past few years, rising menu prices were responsible for much of the industry’s revenue growth. Now, for six consecutive months, sales have been growing faster than prices.
That doesn’t mean every restaurant is experiencing a boom. Customer traffic is still uneven, and higher sales don’t necessarily mean healthier margins. But it’s encouraging evidence that people aren’t simply paying more for the same restaurant experiences. The industry is seeing real growth again.
And that growth comes despite the pressures facing household budgets.
The National Restaurant Association’s latest consumer survey found that restaurants remain Americans’ top discretionary spending priority.
That’s worth remembering.
Restaurants offer something that cannot always be replaced by a less expensive alternative. They’re places where people connect, celebrate, and enjoy being taken care of. When budgets get tight, people may visit less often or choose differently, but the reasons they love restaurants don’t simply disappear.
And there are reasons to believe restaurants will keep getting better at serving those customers.
Technology continues to offer new ways to reclaim valuable time, manage expenses, and make daily operations more efficient. Not every new tool will deliver on its promises, and few will solve a restaurant’s problems overnight. But the steady improvement of the tools available to operators isn’t dependent on the outcome of a single election.
For an industry where time and margins are frequently in short supply, even modest improvements can make a meaningful difference.
Perhaps most importantly, hospitality itself isn’t going away.
Whatever happens in November, people will still appreciate being welcomed, recognized, and treated well. They’ll remember the restaurants that made them feel comfortable, the meals worth returning for, and the people who made an ordinary evening feel special.
Those are powerful things, and they don’t depend on legislation or election results.
They’re also things restaurant operators and their teams have some control over, even when so much else feels uncertain.
A little certainty in uncertain times
None of this is to suggest that the election doesn’t matter. It does. Decisions made in Washington and state capitals can have profound consequences for businesses, workers, and communities. Some of those consequences may take years to become clear.
Nor are we suggesting that the restaurant industry is somehow insulated from the challenges facing the country.
But when uncertainty starts to feel overwhelming, it can help to recognize the difference between the things we cannot predict and the things we already understand.
Restaurants will continue facing challenges, some old and some new. Customers will still be careful about money. Great employees will still be worth investing in. And people will continue seeking out the food, experiences, and connections that restaurants provide.
There are real reasons to be concerned about the future. There are also real reasons to be hopeful.
Whatever happens on November 3, restaurant operators won’t be starting from scratch the following morning. They’ll still have the experience they’ve earned, the relationships they’ve built, and the ability to make a difference in the businesses and communities they serve.
The future may be uncertain. But not everything about it is unknown.